MotoGP is coming to Phillip Island this weekend, as the premier motorcycle racing series gets set for the Australian GP. With only three more races left on the 2011 calendar, it is possible that Phillip Island could decide the 2011 MotoGP Championship, and points leader Casey Stoner is keen on winning the title in from of his home crowd. After a bobble at Motegi, Stoner saw Jorge Lorenzo claw back four more points in the Championship, thus leaving some margin for the Spaniard to prolong the Championship run (Lorenzo still has a mathematical chance at winning the Championship, we might add). With that being said though, Stoner is the betting favorite for the title, and could still very well clinch at home in Australia. To do so, one of six outcomes needs to occur.

  1. Stoner wins, and Lorenzo finishes 4th or worse
  2. Stoner finishes 2nd, and Lorenzo finishes 5th or worse
  3. Stoner finishes 3rd, and Lorenzo finishes 9th or worse
  4. Stoner finishes 4th, and Lorenzo finishes 12th or worse
  5. Stoner finishes 5th, and Lorenzo finishes 14th or worse
  6. Stoner finishes 6th, and Lorenzo finishes worse than 15th, or DNFs

The underlying premise in these calculations is that Casey Stoner must leave the Australian GP 50 points ahead of Jorge Lorenzo. This would allow Stoner to miss the next two races at Sepang and Valencia, and still win the Championship via a points tie-breaker, which takes into account which rider has won the most races during the season. With Stoner currently holding eight victories to Lorenzo’s three, the Australian automatically would win any tie-breaking decision, regardless of the outcome of the next three races. Will we see an Australian MotoGP Champion crowned in Australia? Only time will tell.

Photo: Honda