Crunching the Numbers: Lorenzo vs Rossi – Marquez, Pedrosa, & Crutchlow – The Race Pace at Qatar

04/11/2013 @ 6:00 pm, by David Emmett17 COMMENTS

Crunching the Numbers: Lorenzo vs Rossi   Marquez, Pedrosa, & Crutchlow   The Race Pace at Qatar Saturday Qatar GP MotoGP Scott Jones 17 635x422

Much has been made in the days since the thrilling MotoGP season opener at Qatar of the charge of Valentino Rossi through the field and the pace he ran to catch the group behind Dani Pedrosa.

Speculation has been rife that had Rossi got a better start – and more importantly, got a much better qualifying position – he could have matched the pace of Lorenzo, and taken the fight to him. But just how realistic is the idea that Rossi could have run with Lorenzo at Qatar, and that Rossi could have matched the pace of his teammate? Reality, or just wishful thinking?

There’s one way to assess the relative performance of the two riders, relatively free from speculation and conjecture: by comparing the fastest lap times of the two, and seeing whose pace is better. Setting the fastest laps of Lorenzo against the fastest laps of Rossi – and the fastest laps of all top five riders, including Marc Marquez, Dani Pedrosa and Cal Crutchlow – should give a much more objective few of the relative speed of the riders.

At least, that’s the theory. In practice, there are a number of factors which influence the lap times set by each rider which need to be taken into account. When was the lap time set? Where was the rider in the running order when the time was set? What strategy was the rider pursuing when the lap times were set?

Rossi vs Lorenzo

To start with, let us examing the five fastest laps set by Jorge Lorenzo, and compare them with the fastest five laps set by Valentino Rossi. First here are the lap times:

LorenzoRossi
Lap no.TimeLap no.TimeDiff
21:55.569161:55.7560.187
31:55.684221:55.8970.213
41:55.644141:55.9120.268
51:55.820121:55.9210.101
81:55.856151:55.9860.130

It is clear that Jorge Lorenzo’s fastest lap times are roughly between a tenth and a quarter of a second faster than those of Rossi. Comparing Lorenzo’s five fastest laps to Rossi’s five fastest laps, Lorenzo is 0.899 seconds faster than Rossi overall.

That, however, does not tell the whole story. Look at the point at which each rider set their fastest times and you get a bit more of the picture. Lorenzo’s fastest laps are all set right at the start of the race, with four of them coming in the first five laps. The reigning world champion took off like a scalded cat, keen to big as big a gap over Pedrosa as possible as early as possible.

Pedrosa was the rider Lorenzo had been most concerned about before the race started. “We saw that Pedrosa had a problem, and we took advantage of that,” Wilco Zeelenberg, Lorenzo’s manager explained. Lorenzo’s plan was simple: “I had to push more than 100% to get two tenths every lap,” he said. Those first few laps are where Lorenzo won the race. From that point on, Lorenzo focused on consolidating, dropping his pace from mid 1’55s to low 1’56s.

Rossi’s early laps were much slower, in part because he got caught up in traffic, and also because he was still not completely certain what pace he could run. After first scaring himself by hitting his brake guard against the back of Dani Pedrosa’s back wheel, Rossi took his time to get past Stefan Bradl on lap 8, and then needed a couple of laps to catch his breath and understand what pace he could run.

With the group containing Pedrosa ahead of him, he had something to focus on, and as his confidence grew as he closed on the group ahead. Rossi’s best laps were set during the chase to close down Pedrosa, with the exception of the last lap when he was battling to hold off Marquez.

So how could Rossi close down Dani Pedrosa, an acknowledged master of lapping at great speed? The Repsol Honda man had had problems all weekend, the dusty surface making it difficult to get the bike to turn. At the time when Rossi was running in the high 1’55s, Pedrosa was running 1’56.3s, and Rossi was gaining nearly half a second a lap.

What would have happened if the two had been racing against each other at the same time, with a clear track and with the same level of confidence? That is hard to say. Rossi’s pace of roughly 1’55.9 is clearly a pace he could have sustained for a while, and as he was setting it on worn tires, it was not the fastest he possibly could have gone.

Jorge Lorenzo was capable of dropping his pace to 1’55.6 for three laps, which was enough to shake off any kind of pursuit. But from there, he was capable of running around 1’56.0 for almost the rest of the race, a pace he was clearly comfortable at and could sustain without taking any risks. The preliminary conclusion is that on the evidence of Qatar – or perhaps it is better to say, at Qatar – Lorenzo still has the upper hand.

Marquez vs Pedrosa vs Crutchlow

Leaving Rossi and Lorenzo to one side for a moment, comparing the times set by the three men who completed the top five also makes for interesting reading. Here are the top five laps set by Marc Marquez, Dani Pedrosa and Cal Crutchlow:

MarquezPedrosaCrutchlow
Lap no.TimeLap no.TimeLap no.Time
31:55.44531:55.95321:55.804
41:55.80721:56.03831:56.063
221:56.01951:56.04941:56.146
91:56.03541:56.06091:56.149
21:56.05471:56.15571:56.179

What is interesting here is to see just how close together they all are. With the exception of Marquez’ best lap, who sets the fastest race lap on lap 3, the times of the trio are all closely matched. This is mainly because the three men spent most of the race close together, with Pedrosa at the front of the group.

After the race, Crutchlow complained of a lack of acceleration – something he later confirmed on his Twitter page could be down to a fuel miscalculation, as they finished the race with fuel still left in the tank – while Pedrosa said he had been slowed up by a lack of grip.

Marquez was fast on new tires, something which he had proved during practice, and underlined by setting the fastest lap of the race. But the young Spaniard also spent the race learning; being stuck behind Pedrosa gave him an opportunity to watch his teammate and understand how to manage the bike on worn tires.

He adapted his style to compensate, standing the bike up more to use the fat part of the tire, where previously he had been trying to carry more lean angle, and losing out. The lessons paid off: though he set his fastest laps in the early stages of the race, he found another burst of speed at the end, as he fought with Valentino Rossi over the last two places on the podium. That is visible in his times too: Marquez’ third fastest lap was set on the very last lap of the race.

Top 20 Fastest Laps

Finally, another way of looking at comparative pace in the race is by looking at the fastest laps set by all of the riders. Putting together all of the times set by all of the riders, the domination by the front five becomes crystal clear.

The best time set by a rider other than Lorenzo, Rossi, Marquez, Pedrosa and Crutchlow is the time set by Alvaro Bautista, a lap of 1’56.122. Between them, the front five posted 28 laps faster than that time, Bautista’s best lap being the 29th quickest in the race.

Ranking the laps in order of lap time, it is clear that Lorenzo’s pace was unstoppable. The factory Yamaha man did not only have the fastest lap, but he had 3 of the top 4 fastest laps, and 6 of the top 10. Marc Marquez had 2 of the 10 fastest laps, while Rossi and Crutchlow had just 1 each.

Looking at the 11th to 20th fastest laps, it is clear that Rossi’s pace here was strongest. Rossi had 4 of those laps, while Lorenzo, Marquez and Pedrosa each had two. Of the top 20 laps, Lorenzo set 8 of the fastest, Rossi set 5 of the fastest, Marquez set 4 of the fastest, Pedrosa set 2 and Crutchlow set just 1.

Top 10 fastest laps1:55.445 – 1:55.893
Lorenzo6
Marquez2
Rossi1
Crutchlow1
Fastest laps 11-201:55.897 – 1:56.038
Rossi4
Lorenzo2
Marquez2
Pedrosa2

Conclusions

Can we draw many conclusions from the data presented? A few, perhaps, but only with caveats attached. Jorge Lorenzo is still clearly the fastest rider in the world, at least at the Losail circuit in Qatar. Valentino Rossi has refound his mojo, but faces a very tough nut to crack in his teammate.

Marc Marquez possesses blistering natural speed and is learning very fast, as befits a young rider; once he is up to speed, by the halfway point in the season, he is going to be a fearsome opponent indeed. And Dani Pedrosa and Cal Crutchlow are proof that getting set up perfectly right, or having a specific problem at a particular track, is the difference between battling for the podium and settling for points.

If you’d like to go over the numbers for yourself, make sure you check out the PDF files on the results page of the MotoGP.com website. There’s the Analysis file, which contains a full list of every lap and sector split for each rider, and there’s the Analysis by lap file, which gives every lap by every rider, plus their gap to the front.

Photo: © 2013 Scott Jones / Scott Jones Photography – All Rights Reserved

This article was originally published on MotoMatters, and is republished here on Asphalt & Rubber with permission by the author.

Comment:

  1. VivaVerdi says:

    GREAT article – thanks!

  2. moot says:

    Great analysis, very enjoyable reading and I found it very logical and credible. well dne.

  3. Great write-up by David, as usual. So much better than the speculation and bias of so many other so-called journos…

  4. Slangbuster says:

    Very interesting. Good work.

  5. zupudachimp says:

    If Audi had a clue, they’d shut down this op and send the riders back to wsbk. Another year on the merry-go-round. painful.
    make superbikes, sell superbikes, race superbikes, win on superbikes. simple!

  6. zipidachimp says:

    I gotta quit posting in the dark, in the middle of the night.I mispelled my own nom-de-plume. rats!

  7. pooch says:

    Ducati dug their own grave when they treated Stoner with such contempt…

    So Lorenzo fastest out the blocks then initial laps, then Rossi fastest late race (when Lorenzo was relaxing and maintaining the gap) no real surprises.

    One race does not a comeback make, lets see where VR46 sits mid season before we hail the second coming…

    Marquez is the real deal, no surprises there either. The only real surprise for me is Dani’s poor showing at Qatar, but he will be back.

  8. Norm G. says:

    re: “make superbikes, sell superbikes, race superbikes, win on superbikes. simple!”

    i know right…? what a crazy concept.

  9. jimmy smith JR says:

    This article over looks the rattle factor! Case in point, a few years back at Laguna. Stoner led every practice and qualifying session he put the bike on pole and was expected to be on the top step of the podium before the lights even went out. BUT Rossi rattled him….he passed him again and again…knowing he couldn’t match his clear track pace he just applied pressure to him wherever he could and Stoner cracked and made an unforced error. Rossi won. Its like boxing everyone has a plan until they get hit.

    Lorenzo is fast on a clear track but, I’m not so sure Lorenzo can go toe to toe with Rossi in a dog fight. Remember Rossi’s last season with yamaha…i think it was the Japan race. Lorenzo was faster but Rossi rattled him and took the win. More to come.

  10. i cameron says:

    Finally, someone comments on the other factor involved @jimmy smith! There is no way to know what would have happened if Rossi made up to Lorenzo’s rear tire on lap 2 (which it looked like was going to happen). I was at Laguna Seca that day sitting with everyone else wondering who was going to battle for second place. Rossi made me a lifetime believer of his abilities that day (and him overcoming the 10 sec penalty at Phillip Island too). Rossi is the ONLY rider who can do what others think is impossible/improbable time and time again.

    The fact everyone is even talking about Rossi battling with Lorenzo and Pedrosa is a gift from heaven for any fan of motorcycle racing. I hope the battle lasts GP after GP and questions aren’t answered until the last few races. Then Stoner can come back and the battle can heat up some more!!

  11. L2C says:

    If anything, this analysis trashes the claim that Lorenzo “thrashed” Rossi, and that Rossi had “help” carving his way into a 2nd place finish. I do appreciate the work done here, though.

  12. CTK says:

    AHHHH thanks so much for this analysis. I saw the lap times on the MotoGP site and thought about doing an analysis like this but didn’t want to bother converting the PDF to an Excel file.

    All I have to say about this… TWO WORDS… CATALUNYA 2009

    If Rossi is battling someone you can’t call it finished until the checkered flag drops.

  13. Bruce says:

    @CTK,

    Well put. The last three laps of Catalunya ’09, are on my list of greats with Imola ’02.

    http://vimeo.com/32756097

  14. mxs says:

    Ahhh, the old talk about Rossi’s dogfights … blablabla … one thing I didn’t miss when he was at the end of the pack, that’s for sure.

    Time to accept that there are other younger riders who will carry the MotoGP flag whether you like it or not.

  15. CTK says:

    @mxs… if Rossi were washed up and uncompetitive you’d have a point… but in case you are out of the loop… he podiumed on his first race on a non-Ducati last weekend

    Plus nobody in MotoGP has dude’s personality. He brings excitement and humanity to the sport. Marquez is young and fresh but other than that he is a bit boring. All the Spaniards are fast but they are dull as uncooked rice. Super Sic is the only rider I could say who would do the same, and unfortunately he’s dead. I dont see whats so bad about wanting the guy people relate the most to to win

  16. can’t wait to see rossi battle with george although if you don’t think lorenzo was just cruising out there at qatar then you have another thing coming
    once he gapped the field why would he ride at the limit ?
    there are 3 other riders gonna mix it up at the pointy end as well,we are in for the best season in recent history, with 5 strong RACERS gouging each others eyes out for podiums

  17. spytech says:

    Would it be safe to say that the new tires fall off towards the end of the race? i remember rossi saying that he could hang with lorenzo, he was not sure if he could be there at the end; now, i do not know if this is because of his conditioning or the tires, but i am assuming it is because he didnt think he could make the tires last.

    so if the tires fall off during the race, and lorenzo was pushing 110% in the first few laps to get away (as he said), and rossi’s fastest laps came towards the end of the race – then i would assume rossi can hang with lorenzo and battle with him all the way to the end.

    Lorenzo, cruised after he opened the gap, but his fastest laps came early. Could lorenzo replicate those lap times towards the end of the race, while he is trying to protect his lines and going toe to toe with someone like rossi. lorenzo is good when he is away and no one in front of him or chasing him down, but once he has to swap position, block/protect his race line he is not as fast and usually ends up losing the battle.