Let’s say I agree with that, but at what point is this “flattening” unacceptable to the Big4 such that they do something about it, which would either be introducing their own product (which they are surely working on – if Honda has the time to pursue electric unicycles, surely they have capacity of some sufficient resource looking into altenative powertrain for their motorbikes), or as you stated, partner/absorb the existing offerings in the market? To me, this is the big question.

Let’s say Zero’s plan works perfectly, and tomorrow they reveal a product that in everyway compares well with the performance of 600cc sportbikes – with all the advantages an E powertrain brings to the table. Let’s say they also, just as magically, have a dealer and service network in place to distribute and service this silver bullet vehicle – or at least something that performs as a conventional support network. In 2008 sportbike sales in the US were 165K units (this includes triumph, BMW, Ducati, and KTM as well), of which displacements of 501cc-750cc amounted to 82K amongst this group. What % of that figure starts to mean something to the existing players?

More importantly, what % of that figure does Zero feel they need to capture to sustain existance? Production volume significantly impacts any company’s business case, and we’ve seen no discussion of this point in the article. At $7500, the least expensive MSRP of Zero’s current offerings, how many must be sold to break even? At 1000 units (roughly 1% of current market, so .25% of sales to each of the Big4 – think they will care? They’ll just sell more T-shirts), assuming Zero’s cost to be somewhere around 1/2 MSRP, and considering they are shipping via UPS (so no dealer cut in margin), gross sales would be around 3.5million – not a bad nut, except I’m sure those silicon valley digs (however non-descript), and silicon valley IT, EE, and ME types don’t come cheap – which altogether leaves precious little $$$ to pursue product development, which is probably the most important aspect of this sector.

At the end of the day, I fail to see how such a player will change the industry. A functional Emoto with perfomance characteristics similar or close to existing ICE vehicles will change the industry, but only in as much as we will have another option along side of 2′s, 3′s, 4′s, and 6′s…….unless, of course, the vehicle delivers competive performance (or superior) and is vastly less expensive, or through electronic gimmickery provides some other novel advantage unavailable to ICE vehicles.

Two guys will change the face of the motorcycle industry in the next decade. I don’t know their names, and there is a good chance they will not be directly employed by a motorcycle manufacturer. They will be the motor guy and the battery guy, names to be determined later.

I think this flattening was going to happen anyway with KTM grabbing more sales from the big 4 in dirt bikes. Chinese grabbing sales from low displacement bikes and scooters. Electric will cause this to happen faster. The Big 4 will partner up with the people taking their market share. They have been doing it with the Chinese, Taiwanese and others for quite a while now. I hope Zero, Brammo and others can move fast enough and smart enough to become a big brand and not get sucked up by big $. Pay days are nice but a big American motorcycle brand other than Harley would be cool.

I like this article because it really got my mind spinning about how the industry will change over the next decade.